One Reason Not to Panic

By Reed Domer-Shank

Founder of the J O U R N E Y M E N blog

Not many people love to watch baseball.

The casual sports fan thinks the game is too slow. And, while even most baseball fans love to go to games, the majority find it hard to focus before the playoffs arrive.

I, however, am one of a relatively small contingent that is certifiably die-hard. I try to watch every inning of every game. If I can’t, I hit the DVR later that night. And if I know I won’t even be able to swing that, I’ll engross myself in the live online Gamecast on my phone, drawing the ire of dinner guests/movie patrons/wives everywhere.

It’s a curse, for the most part, and a past-time that anyone but a baseball purist would rank right next to “waiting for grass to grow”.

But for me, it’s a no-brainer.

I love the pace of the game. The pitcher plodding around on the mound anxiously. The hitter stepping out of the batter’s box to adjust every fold of his uniform. The commentators going on for minutes at a time on topics that have nothing to do with the game they’re watching. To me, it’s all part of the show. It’s what sets the game apart.

Lately, however, my love affair with hardball has felt strained...............at best.

Ten games into this young season, the Cincinnati Reds have started down a dangerously depressing path. Despite boasting a lineup that finished second last season in runs scored, Cincy’s offense has looked downright emaciated.

Before Sunday’s mini offensive explosion (four runs in one inning, three in another), the Reds were scoring less than Paraguay’s National futbol club (10 runs over six games). The drought’s been so bad, I actually spent forty-five minutes on the treadmill the other day thinking of things I’d RATHER do than watch the Reds continue to blow. Sadly, that list included “rub sand into my blisters”, “witness a Charles Barkley toilet session”, and “watch fat people take off bathing suits.”

For one of the only times EVER, watching baseball had ceased to be fun.

Thankfully though, if we can allow ourselves to push through all the strikeouts and injuries and bullpen implosions, I’m here to tell you that it won’t always be this way. There is, in fact, hope.

If it seems like the Reds are having a tough time in April, if it feels like wins are hard to come by, well, that’s because April is supposed to be tough for this team. See, between creating a Dusty Baker voodoo puppet and cursing the Orioles for bequeathing us Fat-Alfredo-Simon, I spent some time analyzing the Reds’ schedule. For many fans, a bad April equals a bad outlook for a season. Well, my hope was that that didn’t necessarily have to be true. And frankly, I wanted something to latch onto.

My method was simple. Take the consensus top three teams in the National League Central (the Reds, Cardinals, and Brewers), and compare just how easy/difficult their schedules appear, by month. To do this, I had to decide what exactly made a month “easy” or “difficult”. So I took every team in baseball, looked at preseason prognostications/power rankings, took stock (to a degree) of their performance through a week and a half, and labeled each as either quality or subpar.

My quality teams included the Angels, Rangers, Tigers, Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, and Blue Jays in the American League, and the Giants, Dodgers, D-Backs, Reds, Cards, Brewers, Nationals, Phillies, Marlins and Braves in the National League.

17 legitimate clubs in all, which is just over half of baseball. I think that’s pretty fair.

Each time a quality team showed up on the schedule, I gave the Reds (or Cards/Brewers, respectively) a -1. Each time a subpar team showed up, a +1. And finally, I simply added up each month. A simplistic analysis, to be sure, but compelling nonetheless.

Here are the results...

	CINCINNATI	ST.LOUIS	MILWAUKEE
APRIL	-10	-4	-1
MAY	-1	-7	-4
JUNE	+9	+15	+10
JULY	-2	-1	-11
AUGUST	+2	-7	+10
SEPTEMBER	+2	+2	-6
OCTOBER	-3	-3	+3
TOTAL	-3	-5	+1

A few things stand out here:

First, Milwaukee has an automatic advantage in this three-team race (in addition, obviously, to their rampant and unchecked steroid abuse). With a favorable schedule(+1 overall), the Brewers have an opportunity to win their second division title in as many years. It remains to be seen if, without Prince Fielder, they’ll have the firepower to capitalize.

Second, while Dusty Baker’s squad should make some serious hay in June(+9), the other NL Central contenders will be busy doing the same (+15 and +10, respectively). The caveat here is that six of the Reds’ “plus” games in June are against in-state rival Cleveland, a team that has historically given them trouble. Still, in order to keep pace, June has to be huge for Cincinnati.

Third, and most relevant to Reds fans today is that April(-10) is a straight up GAUNTLET for Cincinnati. Five series’ out of seven are against quality opponents, including two against the World Champion Cardinals and one against the devastating starting rotation in San Francisco. If the Reds can somehow weather that storm, the rest of the journey will seem docile in comparison.

For me, these numbers are just one piece of a complicated puzzle. That is, no amount of schedule-padding will help the Reds if they can’t get healthy, or if they can’t hit better than .230. Your opponents, no matter how Houston-like they may be, will only afford you so many opportunities to succeed. At some point, teams need to separate themselves on their own merit. The Reds have yet to do that this season, but the road surely looks smoother ahead.

For that reason, I guess I’ll keep watching.

10 Observations from Week One

By: Reed Domer-Shank

Founder of the J O U R N E Y M E N blog

I’ll start this with one major caveat: I KNOW we’re only a week into the season.

Of course it’s early. Of course things could change in a day. OF COURSE we shouldn’t base assumptions on numbers players have cobbled together in seven days.

But with the excitement of a new season comes inevitable over-reactions, over-analysis, and loads of stress.

It’s the business we’re in. We watch, we react. It’s that simple.

So, don’t freak out, man. Let’s agree that nothing is effed.

But still...here are my reactions after one week of Reds baseball.

1) The Ryan Madson injury hurts, in lots of ways. When I heard about Madson shredding his elbow, I was busy tailgating for a Spring Training game and my drunkometer was hovering at medium. Maybe that’s why I only took the news semi-hard. After all, the Reds had a good bullpen last year and had added the league’s best lefty setup man in Sean Marshall. Turns out, I just didn’t give the whole situation enough thought.

A week into the season, the effects of the Madson nightmare are starting to come into focus, and they’re kind of scary.

First and most obviously, without Madson, the Reds are left with no proven closer. The man replacing him (Marshall) looks really good so far, and I personally am not worried that his first year as the head man won’t be a success. Still, that’s the most obvious effect, so I feel like I shouldn’t leave it out.

Second, Marshall taking over the ninth means others need to step up in the seventh/eighth. Nick Masset (no sure thing, himself) is hurt, so the responsibility shifts to a rickety Bill Bray and an erratic Jose Arredondo. UNLESS...(and this is number three)...Aroldis “Hammer Face” Chapman takes one for the stupid team and drops out of the rotation battle. Which he did...probably involuntarily. That move alone means Homer Bailey gets the rotation’s fifth spot, and we all saw how that movie can play out (three dingers given up in Monday’s first inning).

With Madson, we’re looking at air-tight eighth and ninth innings, locked down by two dominant pitchers who are comfortable in their roles. Middle relief duties would be taken care of by guys who SHOULD be pitching in middle relief (Arredondo, Ondrusek) and the rotation would include one of the filthiest mo-fo’s Fidel Castro ever misplaced (too soon?).

Without Madson, we’re looking at an unknown in the ninth, a shaky (at best) fifth starter, and guys like Afredo Simon pitching in middle relief.

Mother.

2) Middle Relief is a concern. Not to be redundant, but our middle relief corps is an issue.

A couple weeks ago, I wrote this article and said I wasn’t worried about the Reds’ relief pitching.

I’ll take “retractions” for a thousand. Alex.

In short, our sixth innings are currently manned by three guys whose early ERA’s could make your eyes bleed. Sam Lecure (6.00 ERA), Jose Arredondo (9.00), and Alfredo “not good enough for the Orioles” Simon (7.75) have been shaky at best, making these next observations all the more glaring...

3) Matt Latos HAS to be good. This one is simple. In order for the middle relief to be passable over the next week or so (while Bray and Masset get fully healthy), they cannot be overworked. Dusty needs to be able to pick his spots wisely with these guys, and not have to use them for two innings at a time, or in situations where the matchups beg him not to.

Sure, at times, that will be unavoidable. Bronson Arroyo WILL have games where his buttocks is handed to him in the first or second inning. Homer Bailey WILL continue to have a fastball that’s flatter than an Iowa expressway. But that’s why we need Latos to be a stabilizer.

Johnny Cueto is a good makeshift number one, and Latos needs to complement him and allow the ‘pen to recharge. He can’t have regular meltdowns, and he can’t underperform his expectations. If he does, I say the Reds miss the playoffs.

In fact, I’ll put that out there right now: as Latos goes, the team goes.

Let’s validate that statement in July.

4) Homer Bailey will never be a good Major League pitcher. I doubt you’ll find a Reds fan anywhere that doesn’t REALLY wish Homer Bailey would work out.

At one point he was the savior. Then he was the “wow if he could ONLY stay healthy” guy. Then he slowly took on the “high upside fourth starter” role. Now...ugh...it’s like we’re all just wishing he would go away.

Yeah, sure, the talent is there. Or at least it WAS there, at one point. But nothing out of Homer Bailey (seemingly since the Clinton Administration) has proven that he’ll be anything more than a fifth or sixth insurance arm. It’s sad, but I have to side with my heart, not my head on this one.

I’d say “Homer being done” is another bold prediction; but that would assume that most of you aren’t completely aware of this sad reality already. Still, I say he never has a 12+ win season or a sub-4.00 ERA.

Ever.

5) Jay Bruce is making me look good. In my preseason predictions, I said Jay Bruce would parlay his new physique and increased experience into a dynamite season. I predicted a .280 batting average and 35-40 homeruns. I predicted he’d win a Gold Glove.

So far, Bruce leads the team in homers and RBI, and has had several base hits (little hook shots where he went with the pitch instead of flailing wildly) that he NEVER would have had at this time last year.

I predict I was right.

6) Drew Stubbs = the forgotten man. Remember Opening Day? Remember what Drew Stubbs did that made every Reds fan in the country go all goat-kneed? Thats right...Drew Stubbs BUNTED, ladies and gents. And he emerged with a base hit to show for it.

Since that at-bat, his first of the year, Stubbs has gone three-for-19 and hasn’t even attempted to SPELL bunt.

There was a time when I got excited at the thought of Stubbs’ “tools”. Tingly, even, when he’d come up to bat, reeking of triples-speed and ding-dong power. These days? I’ll be quite honest...as he sits there sandwiched between Heisey and the catcher, sometimes I LITERALLY forget he exists.

Dear Drew,

Bunt More.

Signed,

Everyone

7) Willie Harris is worthless. Corey Patterson. Willy Taveras. Fred Lewis.

Willie Harris.

I know preaching to Reds fans about how LITTLE Willie Harris will contribute this year is probably like telling the residents of District 12 how uncool the Hunger Games are. I get it, and I won’t spend much time on it.

But seriously...you’ve heard about athletes that make everyone around them better? Well every time I watch this guy struggle through an at-bat, I feel MYSELF getting worse.

8) Wilson Valdez is not. I like to think that, as a resident of Philadelphia, I have a pretty unique perspective on how valuable Wilson Valdez can be.

First, he was the winning pitcher in that 19-inning marathon last year, a game I attended and one that was surely a big demoralizer for the Reds. Yet, Valdez has value beyond his ability to win 19-inning snoozers, and you need only listen to Philly talk radio to understand it.

Last season, as Chase Utley commuted back and forth from the retirement home, Valdez stepped up in countless situations, providing a steady bat in the lineup and a reliable glove anywhere he was needed.

Today, as the same Chase Utley continues to age at three times the pace as the rest of humankind, Philly fans cannot believe the organization let Valdez get away. The guy’s a gamer, plain and simple, and he’d be invaluable this season at Citizen’s Bank park.

Luckily for Reds fans, he now plays in Great American, where just yesterday he dropped down TWO bunts (two!) for hits. I predict that Cincinnati fans will warm to Valdez quickly this season, and that he’ll play a bigger role than we may have originally thought.

9) We are a much better team with Scott Rolen at third base. As steady as Valdez may be, he is still no substitute for someone like Scott Rolen.

Sure, Rolen’s bat may never be what it once was (he’s currently hitting .118). But I say Rolen hits between .275 and .280 this season, provided he stays healthy. If he does, we’re a MUCH better team. Period. And plays like his bare-handed laser-beam to first the other night prove it.

I like Miguel Cairo, but I REALLY like Scott Rolen.

10) This team has NO room for injuries. Despite a disappointing series against the Cardinals (where they barely avoided a sweep), I like this Reds team. I think the hitting has depth throughout the order and will be fine, I think the defense will be superb, and I think we’ve got a few really good arms.

Still, the Phillips and Madson injuries show what a few dents and dings can do. Without Phillips, Dusty has already resorted to things like leading off Willie Harris and Drew Stubbs. Without Madson, guys like Todd “Spring Training He-man” Frazier get sent down in favor of Alfredo Simon.

A serious injury to Votto, Phillips, or Bruce would be really detrimental to this team’s chances. A serious injury to Cueto? I’d say pack it in.

Though stocked with potential, I say this team (especially after watching them for a week) NEEDS to stay healthy.

Now then...everybody go freak out.


Reed Domer-Shank
JOURNEYMEN Creator and Lead Conclusion Jumper

5 Burning Questions

Simply put, it's a good time to be a Reds fan.

Can anyone remember a better Opening Weekend than the one we just witnessed? Short of a no-hitter or someone hitting for the cycle, the last three Reds games took us on all-stops tour of baseball delicacy, somehow managing to deliver us home safely on Sunday, happy and full.

Between Ramon Hernandez' walk-off homer on Opening Day, to Travis Wood serving notice to the baseball community on Saturday("Yo…I'm pretty FREAKING good."), to Sunday's lopsided artillery display (the Reds pounded out 12 runs on 19 hits), the weekend's action was as diverse as it was satisfying.

While it's obviously true that three games are, well, JUST three games, we'd be remiss as baseball fanatics if we didn't break from recharging our batteries to take a quick inventory.

Here are a few questions to ponder as we await the Houston series…

1. Has the light come on for Drew Stubbs?

I'll say this now so I don't have to say it again: I'm completely aware that three games is a TINY sample. Please don't assume I am trying to make definitive statements here, or that I think we can even begin to understand the make-up of this team, simply by watching a weekend of baseball.

We can't.

With that said, HOW ABOUT DREW STUBBS?

Three games, five hits, and a slugging percentage of 1.000. However, it's not even his numbers that impress me, it's his approach.

More often than not, in 2010 Stubbs would seem lost at the plate, especially in the leadoff role. However, so far he is settling into the role, taking more pitches, and making better decisions. We don't need Stubbs to morph into a Juan Pierre-type leadoff guy who slaps singles and otherwise just runs fast. Instead, Stubbs is showing what he can do just by being HIMSELF, and so far it's been scary.

Stubbs has always been a "toolsy" type player who would one day get it. No one thought that day would come so soon, and it's still hard to know if it has. Yet, is anyone upset about Stubbs in the 1 hole tomorrow night?

I'm not.

2. Volquez...Should we be worried?

In a word, YES.

I was concerned when it was reported that Dusty Baker handed Volquez the Opening Day start. I had my reasons, all of which remain valid today, but the most pressing was that Volquez got blown to smithereens last time he took the mound.

Without regurgitating the sour, rancid mess that was the NLDS Game One (where the Phillies jumped on Volquez like hyenas on a bleeding gazelle), suffice it to say that Volquez hadn't done anything lately to DESERVE the start, but Dusty gave it to him anyway.

So, like the rest of Reds Nation, I approached Opening Day with the same why-do-I-still-have-any-faith-in-this-guy trepidation I had in October, and the results were virtually the same.

No command, no poise, NO-GOOD.

It's entirely possible that Volquez shakes off the Opening Day jitters, pulls his flat-billed hat on straight, and pumps out 17 wins like a few years back. However, I'll go on record and say he won't.

My guess is it takes this year and possibly next for Volquez to truly figure out how to harness his stuff – which, to be fair, is nasty. Luckily for the Reds, they have others vying for the ace slot. One of those guys pitched Saturday night and ohbytheway…he's pretty good.

To read my full article on Bleacher Report, go HERE. I promise you it's better than staring at that excel spreadsheet.

Dave Sappelt: Now just a faint memory - It pains me to announce that Dave Sappelt has officially been sent packing, literally. In sending Sappelt to Louisville to work on baseball fundamentals, Dusty Baker and Co. basically set the precedent that registering a batting average of BAJILLION doesn't make up for occasionally getting picked off.

I'm not sure I completely agree.

Somehow, the Reds managed without him this weekend, laying about 50 runs on Milwaukee's face and destroying any notion the Brewers may have had about not starting the season 0 and 3. For now, I'll suspend the Sappelt watch, but look for it to continue later in the season, should he continue to outhit the rest of his team combined, or should Jonny Gomes continue to be Jonny Gomes.

Reed Domer-Shank 4-5-2011

What To Do With Aroldis...

Amidst a blinding array of camera flashes and under the blazing heat lamp of national scrutiny, Aroldis Chapman made his Major League Baseball debut on August 31^st, 2010 and did what so precious few rookie phenoms ever manage to do: knocked our effing socks off.

 

Sure enough, the Cuban defector (6'4 and 195 pounds of legs and arms) stared down the barrel of history that night. And, as smooth and easy as his delivery, Chapman mowed down three Milwaukee Brewers like grass under a tank. His fastball was pure electricity, topping out at an otherworldly 103.9. His slider? Knee-buckling, stomach turning, utterly un-hittable.

 

That night, in his first appearance as a Red, Aroldis Chapman showed the world what many scouts already knew, and what most Reds fans had hoped for ever since Cincinnati G.M. Walt Jocketty danced a ninja-tango under the noses of the MLB powerhouses, signing Chapman at the eleventh hour to a shocking $30 million contract. Shocking, not because he wasn't worth it, but because a team like the Reds (small-market, in size and ideology) was willing to pay him.

 

Since that torrid debut, Chapman has done nothing to quell the surge of collective excitement that brought a fan-base to its feet. Working out of the Reds bullpen, Chapman posted a 2.03 ERA and recorded 19 strikeouts in 13.1 innings in his month of service.

 

Even this Spring Training, a time normally reserved for tinkering, getting acclimated, and working out the kinks, Chapman has been just as dominant. As of this writing, he had surrendered just two earned runs in 11 innings of work (good for a 1.64 ERA), due in large part to his 14 K's.

 

That Aroldis Chapman packs obscene natural talent into his spindly frame has never been in doubt. However, despite Chapman's early successes, the same debate that has blurred his legacy thus far rages on today. As an organization with low-to-middling payroll (ranked 19th in 2010 at just over $72 mil), can the Reds REALLY afford to let Chapman remain a $30 million reliever?

 

Indeed, this is the question that Chapman has lugged behind him like an iron ball and chain ever since he signed with Cincinnati in January 2010. While the Reds' front office signed the willowy lefty with every intention of grooming him for a rotation spot (all of his professional experience in Cuba was as a starter), it quickly became apparent that not only did Chapman have some cultural and mechanical fine-tuning to attend to, but that there was little room at the proverbial inn. With incumbent starters Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, and Homer Bailey available, and youngsters Travis Wood, Mike Leake, Matt Maloney, and Sam Lecure ready to make the Minors-to-Majors leap, coaxing Chapman along in a bullpen role suddenly became the most tactical move, where it was already the most prudent.

 

However, here we are Reds fans. Fast forward to Spring Training 2011, and Reds brass has proclaimed again that their most talented arm will spend the season in middle relief. Now, more than ever, it's appropriate to revisit the "Chapman question" as we head into year two of his six in Cincinnati. And now, more than ever, it's time to squash any debate that may still exist about where Chapman belongs, or what his eventual role will be. He's a STARTER, folks, plain and simple. Anyone who says otherwise is a damn fool.

 

I'll explain.

 

 

The above is an excerpt from my latest Bleacher Report column, entitled "Cincinnati Cuban Missile Crisis: What the Reds Must Do with Aroldis Chapman".  If you're interested in reading my case for Chapman joining the Reds rotation POST-HASTE, or for offering an opinion of your own, go HERE.

 

SAPPELT REMAINS! In the spring-long saga of Dave Sappelt (aka the Human Hit Parade), every game is must-see TV (too bad Spring Training game aren't televised). For those of you keeping track at home, but too lazy or old to access Google, Dave "three-times-as-many-hits-as-Jonny-Gomes" Sappelt has continued his scorching pace.

 

With another hit today, Sappelt leads all Reds hitters with more than three at-bats…by nearly ONE HUNDRED PERCENTAGE POINTS (Devin Mesoraco is blazin' too, at .464).

 

Alas, despite the fact that the incumbent left fielder Gomes has spent Spring Training hacking at breaking balls like a kid hunting fireflies at dusk, Dusty Baker has all but booked Sappelt's plane ticket to Louisville.

 

However, let me be one of the first to advocate this move. Yeah, Sappelt is hotter right now than the phrase "winning". And yeah, he may just continue to wreck AAA pitching once the season begins and force someone's hand. However, until that time, the Reds already have one righty outfielder on their roster who's talents will be wasted sitting behind Gomes. That would be Chris Heisey, a stud in his own right who, at the moment, is hitting .326 and leading the team in dongs.

 

Sappelt's time will come soon enough. Until then, let's hope Gomes can figure out that not every pitch is a fastball.

 

Reed Domer-Shank   3/24/2011