5 Burning Questions

Simply put, it's a good time to be a Reds fan.

Can anyone remember a better Opening Weekend than the one we just witnessed? Short of a no-hitter or someone hitting for the cycle, the last three Reds games took us on all-stops tour of baseball delicacy, somehow managing to deliver us home safely on Sunday, happy and full.

Between Ramon Hernandez' walk-off homer on Opening Day, to Travis Wood serving notice to the baseball community on Saturday("Yo…I'm pretty FREAKING good."), to Sunday's lopsided artillery display (the Reds pounded out 12 runs on 19 hits), the weekend's action was as diverse as it was satisfying.

While it's obviously true that three games are, well, JUST three games, we'd be remiss as baseball fanatics if we didn't break from recharging our batteries to take a quick inventory.

Here are a few questions to ponder as we await the Houston series…

1. Has the light come on for Drew Stubbs?

I'll say this now so I don't have to say it again: I'm completely aware that three games is a TINY sample. Please don't assume I am trying to make definitive statements here, or that I think we can even begin to understand the make-up of this team, simply by watching a weekend of baseball.

We can't.

With that said, HOW ABOUT DREW STUBBS?

Three games, five hits, and a slugging percentage of 1.000. However, it's not even his numbers that impress me, it's his approach.

More often than not, in 2010 Stubbs would seem lost at the plate, especially in the leadoff role. However, so far he is settling into the role, taking more pitches, and making better decisions. We don't need Stubbs to morph into a Juan Pierre-type leadoff guy who slaps singles and otherwise just runs fast. Instead, Stubbs is showing what he can do just by being HIMSELF, and so far it's been scary.

Stubbs has always been a "toolsy" type player who would one day get it. No one thought that day would come so soon, and it's still hard to know if it has. Yet, is anyone upset about Stubbs in the 1 hole tomorrow night?

I'm not.

2. Volquez...Should we be worried?

In a word, YES.

I was concerned when it was reported that Dusty Baker handed Volquez the Opening Day start. I had my reasons, all of which remain valid today, but the most pressing was that Volquez got blown to smithereens last time he took the mound.

Without regurgitating the sour, rancid mess that was the NLDS Game One (where the Phillies jumped on Volquez like hyenas on a bleeding gazelle), suffice it to say that Volquez hadn't done anything lately to DESERVE the start, but Dusty gave it to him anyway.

So, like the rest of Reds Nation, I approached Opening Day with the same why-do-I-still-have-any-faith-in-this-guy trepidation I had in October, and the results were virtually the same.

No command, no poise, NO-GOOD.

It's entirely possible that Volquez shakes off the Opening Day jitters, pulls his flat-billed hat on straight, and pumps out 17 wins like a few years back. However, I'll go on record and say he won't.

My guess is it takes this year and possibly next for Volquez to truly figure out how to harness his stuff – which, to be fair, is nasty. Luckily for the Reds, they have others vying for the ace slot. One of those guys pitched Saturday night and ohbytheway…he's pretty good.

To read my full article on Bleacher Report, go HERE. I promise you it's better than staring at that excel spreadsheet.

Dave Sappelt: Now just a faint memory - It pains me to announce that Dave Sappelt has officially been sent packing, literally. In sending Sappelt to Louisville to work on baseball fundamentals, Dusty Baker and Co. basically set the precedent that registering a batting average of BAJILLION doesn't make up for occasionally getting picked off.

I'm not sure I completely agree.

Somehow, the Reds managed without him this weekend, laying about 50 runs on Milwaukee's face and destroying any notion the Brewers may have had about not starting the season 0 and 3. For now, I'll suspend the Sappelt watch, but look for it to continue later in the season, should he continue to outhit the rest of his team combined, or should Jonny Gomes continue to be Jonny Gomes.

Reed Domer-Shank 4-5-2011

What To Do With Aroldis...

Amidst a blinding array of camera flashes and under the blazing heat lamp of national scrutiny, Aroldis Chapman made his Major League Baseball debut on August 31^st, 2010 and did what so precious few rookie phenoms ever manage to do: knocked our effing socks off.

 

Sure enough, the Cuban defector (6'4 and 195 pounds of legs and arms) stared down the barrel of history that night. And, as smooth and easy as his delivery, Chapman mowed down three Milwaukee Brewers like grass under a tank. His fastball was pure electricity, topping out at an otherworldly 103.9. His slider? Knee-buckling, stomach turning, utterly un-hittable.

 

That night, in his first appearance as a Red, Aroldis Chapman showed the world what many scouts already knew, and what most Reds fans had hoped for ever since Cincinnati G.M. Walt Jocketty danced a ninja-tango under the noses of the MLB powerhouses, signing Chapman at the eleventh hour to a shocking $30 million contract. Shocking, not because he wasn't worth it, but because a team like the Reds (small-market, in size and ideology) was willing to pay him.

 

Since that torrid debut, Chapman has done nothing to quell the surge of collective excitement that brought a fan-base to its feet. Working out of the Reds bullpen, Chapman posted a 2.03 ERA and recorded 19 strikeouts in 13.1 innings in his month of service.

 

Even this Spring Training, a time normally reserved for tinkering, getting acclimated, and working out the kinks, Chapman has been just as dominant. As of this writing, he had surrendered just two earned runs in 11 innings of work (good for a 1.64 ERA), due in large part to his 14 K's.

 

That Aroldis Chapman packs obscene natural talent into his spindly frame has never been in doubt. However, despite Chapman's early successes, the same debate that has blurred his legacy thus far rages on today. As an organization with low-to-middling payroll (ranked 19th in 2010 at just over $72 mil), can the Reds REALLY afford to let Chapman remain a $30 million reliever?

 

Indeed, this is the question that Chapman has lugged behind him like an iron ball and chain ever since he signed with Cincinnati in January 2010. While the Reds' front office signed the willowy lefty with every intention of grooming him for a rotation spot (all of his professional experience in Cuba was as a starter), it quickly became apparent that not only did Chapman have some cultural and mechanical fine-tuning to attend to, but that there was little room at the proverbial inn. With incumbent starters Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, and Homer Bailey available, and youngsters Travis Wood, Mike Leake, Matt Maloney, and Sam Lecure ready to make the Minors-to-Majors leap, coaxing Chapman along in a bullpen role suddenly became the most tactical move, where it was already the most prudent.

 

However, here we are Reds fans. Fast forward to Spring Training 2011, and Reds brass has proclaimed again that their most talented arm will spend the season in middle relief. Now, more than ever, it's appropriate to revisit the "Chapman question" as we head into year two of his six in Cincinnati. And now, more than ever, it's time to squash any debate that may still exist about where Chapman belongs, or what his eventual role will be. He's a STARTER, folks, plain and simple. Anyone who says otherwise is a damn fool.

 

I'll explain.

 

 

The above is an excerpt from my latest Bleacher Report column, entitled "Cincinnati Cuban Missile Crisis: What the Reds Must Do with Aroldis Chapman".  If you're interested in reading my case for Chapman joining the Reds rotation POST-HASTE, or for offering an opinion of your own, go HERE.

 

SAPPELT REMAINS! In the spring-long saga of Dave Sappelt (aka the Human Hit Parade), every game is must-see TV (too bad Spring Training game aren't televised). For those of you keeping track at home, but too lazy or old to access Google, Dave "three-times-as-many-hits-as-Jonny-Gomes" Sappelt has continued his scorching pace.

 

With another hit today, Sappelt leads all Reds hitters with more than three at-bats…by nearly ONE HUNDRED PERCENTAGE POINTS (Devin Mesoraco is blazin' too, at .464).

 

Alas, despite the fact that the incumbent left fielder Gomes has spent Spring Training hacking at breaking balls like a kid hunting fireflies at dusk, Dusty Baker has all but booked Sappelt's plane ticket to Louisville.

 

However, let me be one of the first to advocate this move. Yeah, Sappelt is hotter right now than the phrase "winning". And yeah, he may just continue to wreck AAA pitching once the season begins and force someone's hand. However, until that time, the Reds already have one righty outfielder on their roster who's talents will be wasted sitting behind Gomes. That would be Chris Heisey, a stud in his own right who, at the moment, is hitting .326 and leading the team in dongs.

 

Sappelt's time will come soon enough. Until then, let's hope Gomes can figure out that not every pitch is a fastball.

 

Reed Domer-Shank   3/24/2011

National League Central Preview and Predictions

For the past decade, Major League Baseball has witnessed a level of parity usually reserved for the NFL. From 2001 to 2010, the MLB crowned nine different World Series champions, and National League squads like the Florida Marlins and San Francisco Giants went from division cellar-dwellers to rulers of the roost.

Yet, while the N.L. has seen considerable turnover in its East and West divisions, the N.L. Central has been a rock of consistency in the baseball landscape. In the same time span, the St. Louis Cardinals have claimed five of 10 division championships. And, for as much as the Cardinal franchise has become synonymous with winning, the other Central division teams have shuffled through varying degrees of obscurity, losing consistently while etching out equally unenviable reputations.

However, starting with the upstart Reds' 2010 ascension through the divisional pecking order, a fissure has begun to compromise the integrity of the Central's base. Cincinnati right fielder Jay Bruce's division-winning homer in August was a chisel-shot to the division's weakening foundation, foreshadowing the collapse of one of baseball's most immovable establishments.

Suddenly, a division as predictable as the sunrise was gaining new wrinkles every day. The Cardinals, reeling from an unexpected second-place finish, spent the offseason haggling with its star player, only to open the spring with its ace on the operating table.

Meanwhile, a Brewers team that never seemed to place much value on pitching went out and literally sold the farm to acquire some.

Never mind that the Astros and Pirates did little to improve their chances, or that the Cubs doggedly continue to overpay for subpar talent—in the span of five months, a normally predictable division experienced a seismic shift.

The following is an initial attempt at handicapping what promises to be a tumultuous 2011 National League Central race.

* * *

The passage above is excerpted from my latest column for The Bleacher Report. To access the full article, and for a complete rundown of the 2011 NL Central title race (complete with win total predictions for each team and key players), follow this link:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/629539-mlb-preview-2011-a-complete-breakdown-of-the-nl-central-race

For a complete list of every scintillating piece I've written thus far, go here: http://bleacherreport.com/users/457206-reed-domer-shank

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Dave Sappelt for MVP? Ok, we may be getting ahead of ourselves here, but the non-roster career Minor Leaguer has been feasting so far on Spring Training pitching. As of this writing, the speedy outfielder leads the Reds in virtually every offensive statistic that matters, batting .500 in 18 at-bats. It looks as though Dusty has been getting him in the lineup whenever he can, signifying the CHANCE that Sappelt could garner one of the final bench spots, a la Darnell McDonald a few years back. (Never mind that McDonald did absolutely DOOKIE that year except fumble around with a few balls in the outfield on Opening Day).

Count me as a Sappelt supporter. I love many things about Johnny Gomes - but he ain't the long term answer.

If Sappelt ends the spring hitting over .400 - is there any way they can send him to Louisville?

Stay tuned.

Reed Domer-Shank 3/10/2011

Reds sink Mariners

After a bitter end to the Reds' 2010 season came in the form of a three-game sweep at the hands of the Philadelphia Phillies in the National League Division Series, Cincinnati fans have been clamoring for the 2011 season to begin.  With spring training a little more than a week old, those fans are looking at a nearly unchanged roster with a ton of youngsters competing for very few spots.  Those young spring training invitees have given the Reds faithful plenty to talk about, as today's 3-1 victory over the Seattle Mariners marks the fifth in the first seven exhibition contests.

Chris Reineke took the starting duties on the mound, and pitched three full innings, allowing just one run on three hits.  Reds batters helped Reineke to his first win this spring with a two-run second inning which proved to be enough to take care of the boys from the Pacific Northwest.  Reineke posted a 9-9 record with a 3.91 ERA at AAA Louisville a season ago to earn himself a spot this spring, and although the Reds appear to have more starting pitching than rotation spots, Reineke is looking like a youngster with a bright future.

Starting pitching is obviously a strong part of this season's Reds, and early in the spring, those starters have shown tremendous control.  In the first seven games, Cincinnati starters have chalked up only one base-on-balls.

Following Reineke was a five-way shutout effort between Bill Bray, Jerry Gil, Dontrelle Willis, Nick Masset, and Phillippe Valiquette.  Masset bounced back nicely after a horrendous third of an inning against the Indians on Feb. 28 in which he allowed three earned runs on three hits and a walk.

The Reds' offense has started to perk up as of late.  Juan Duran, Yonder Alonso, and Zack Cozart each notched two hits in this afternoon's victory.  Alonso has hit safely in each of his three starts and has a .571 batting average in seven plate appearances.

The Reds' offense came early in this one, and two of their three runs came in the second inning.  After Ramon Hernandez scorched a double down the left-field line, new Red Fred Lewis promptly knocked a single up the middle to send Hernandez to the plate.  Lewis was able to reach second on a throw to the plate.  After a Hermida groundout sent Lewis to third, he crossed the plate for the Reds' second run on a Kris Negron sacrifice fly.

The Mariners answered with a run of their own in the bottom half of the third inning when a sacrifice fly from the bat of Ichiro Suzuki sent Dustin Ackley to the plate.

Hernandez kept up his solid spring reputation behind the plate.  Prior to Reineke's one earned run, Reds' pitchers were allowing just a 1.13 ERA with Hernandez calling the pitches.

Early on, the Reds longest hitting streak of the spring came to an end when Jeremy Hermida went 0-for-2.  Hermida had hit safely in his previous four showings.  One of four Reds on Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects List, catcher Devin Mesoraco ended a three-game hitting streak after going 0-for-1 following a seventh-inning replacement of first-round pick Yasmani Grandal.

Tomorrow (Mar. 5), the Reds will face the National League West's Los Angeles Dodgers.  Bronson Arroyo will take the mound to start opposite LA's Clayton Kershaw, who is coming off a solid 2010 season.  Slated to take the mound after Arroyo are Logan Ondrusek, Jose Arredondo, Jordan Smith, Scott Carroll, and Jeremy Horst.

The Reds will take on the Mariners again on Mar. 21 at Goodyear Ballpark.  Although last spring, the opponents split two games, the Mariners have a clear advantage in regular season matches.  The Reds have posted just a 1-8 regular season record against Seattle, including last season's three-game losing sweep at Safeco Field.

Mike Zimmerman
3/4/2011